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THE MIDDLE GROUND · INTERACTIVE

Road to 61

Build Israel's next coalition. Tap a party to add it — the arithmetic updates instantly. But some combinations that add up to 61 seats on paper have already been ruled out by the parties themselves.

By Eli Kowaz, for The Middle Ground

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THE STATE OF PLAY · {{ pollingDate }}

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The Middle Ground’s read
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One analyst's ranking, not a forecast.
Polling as of {{ pollingDate }} · {{ pollingSource }} · {{ countdown }}
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Needs an editor’s eye
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Hypothetical
{{ droppedNames }} {{ droppedVerb }} the 3.25% threshold. Those {{ droppedSeats }} seats are shared out among the parties that cleared it, so every number below has moved.
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61 to govern
Tap to add or remove · dashed = near the threshold
IF THEY MISS THE THRESHOLD

Israel wastes every vote for a list under 3.25%, and shares those seats among the lists that clear it. This is where the election is actually decided.

Already below it: {{ b.text }} None of them wins a seat on current polling, so none is in the arithmetic above — but their votes are part of what gets redistributed.

TRY A SCENARIO

Prime minister contested — {{ pmTiedNames }} tie for the largest party.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Likely Prime Minister
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Gadi Eisenkot
Likely Prime Minister
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Likely Prime Minister
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Why this won't work

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A political stance, not a fixed principle — this kind of pledge has been reversed before.

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The analyst's note

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The analyst's note

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Worth a caution

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What would have to change

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What would have to change

Nothing reaches 61 from here — even setting every stated red line aside, the parties still outside this coalition do not have the seats between them.

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COALITION · {{ coalitionCount }} {{ partyWord }}
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Empty. Tap parties below (or drag them here) to start building.

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WHERE THEY STAND

The three questions that draw the red lines above. Parties sharing a colour in a column are on the same side of it — the colour marks the side, not a verdict. Tap any party for the full position.

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ALL PARTIES · 120 seats

Tap to add. Blocks under each seat count show a party's size — one block per seat. Dashed cards sit near Israel's 3.25% threshold (about 4 seats) — a swing either way can flip a bloc's total.

LEFT
RIGHT
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near the threshold
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✓ in coalition — tap to remove
HOW THIS WORKS

Israel elects all 120 members of its parliament, the Knesset, by national party-list vote. No party has ever won a majority on its own — governing takes a coalition of parties whose seats add up to at least 61.

Parties are grouped into rough blocs (pro-Netanyahu, the "change" bloc opposing him, and Arab-majority parties usually left out of both) — but bloc lines shift, and a party polling near Israel's 3.25% threshold (about 4 seats) can vanish from the Knesset entirely.

The catch this tool is built around: seats aren't the only constraint. Parties publicly rule each other out. A coalition can clear 61 on paper and still be politically impossible — build one below and see for yourself.
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Annexation

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Two-state solution

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Haredi draft bill

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THE MIDDLE GROUND'S READ · MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES

One analyst's ranking, not a forecast. Tap any scenario to load it above.

THE KINGMAKER

Of the {{ totalCombos }} possible party combinations, only {{ viablePaths }} are minimal coalitions that clear 61 without crossing a stated refusal. {{ kingmakerName }} is the small party viable in coalitions anchored by either side — appearing in {{ kingmakerCount }} of them.

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Why these numbers

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A tool by Eli Kowaz — subscribe to The Middle Ground.

Read more Israeli election analysis at The Middle Ground.